If You Understand the U.S Policy toward Syria, Please Stand Up

After a bewildering week of events and non events, no one can honestly say they know what is going on with our policy in or toward Syria.

Perhaps most people are already bored and the news media has returned to  the standard fare of politics as usual. Domestic politics is not my cup of tea. In fact, like most people these days, politics are a rapid turnoff. I suppose this works in the  Administration’s favor. Putin threw out a life preserver to Obama and he grabbed it in unseemly haste. Of course, Putin did not do it as a favor to Obama whom he takes every opportunity to humiliate, and unfortunately our country as well.

So why did Putin do it? Russia wants stability, and a really large scale U.S attack on Syria had unforeseen consequences with possibly a series of sectarian and religious  explosions around the Arab and Islamic world.

In the 50’s and 60’s the Russians promoted instability because we were the dominant power in the Middle East and it was our interest to maintain the lid on. Now the situation is reversed. American influence has declined so precipitously, and the Russian’s risen so quickly that it is in their interest to maintain a sort of  equilibrium. So, rather than risk the consequences of a face -saving  act of war instigated by the outsized Obama ego and his personal pique, Putin gave Obama an out. Luckily he took it.

In the meantime certain facts are slowly surfacing. The Assad regime does not have the military power to regain complete control over all Syria. Their loyal forces are too small. The Alawis are a small minority and while many Sunnis do not want to see Assad go down, they are not willing to die for him. Meanwhile, the Shi’a of Lebanon are not totally on board with Hezbolah’s participation in this war and as some reports suggest, are increasingly unhappy with being involved. Recently there have been few reports of Hezbollah involved in the fighting, perhaps indicating they have pulled back a bit.

The recent rebel attack and capture of Ma’aloula, a small Christian town in Syria, where the people still speak the ancient language of Aramaic., the language of Jesus Christ. It appears that the Islamist rebels simply swept into the town firing celebratory shots into the air. There was little resistance. Now, the regime forces have counter-attacked but  the situation is unclear. Ma’laoula has little strategic value and that is why it was so weakly defended. Nevertheless, it obviously has great propaganda value to the rebels and they promptly put out videos of the “conquest.”  It particularly struck me because I visited there in the mid 90’s spending time in one of the ancient churches.

ImageA pic of me with folks in a family-run furniture store in  Damascus

The lesson is that the regime forces are stretched thin and they are unable to defend all the territory of Syria.

On the other side, the rebels are unable to destroy the Assad forces, not because they lack the people or even the weapons. This is not a high tech war nor a war of heavy  weapons. The “flow” of US- supplied weapons to the rebels will make very little difference. It is like most of Obamas moves, a theatrical gesture. Syria is already awash in  weapons. Anyone can obtain them.

The problem of the rebels is a totally fragmented command and control over disparate religious and sectarian factions. They are at its each others throats most of the time. Were Assad removed, total chaos would ensue, with the Islamists eventually most likely to come out on top.  A recent captive of the rebels, just released, described his captors as disorganized, equally motivated  by religious zeal and desire  for plunder.

The point here is that,  given the lack of some catastrophe event, e. g. death of Assad,  the stalemate will continue with a continuing flow of refugees to the the neighboring counties with increasing hostility between the refugees and the host nationals. Money by the West or Gulfies will only ameliorate an increasing volatile situation.

Stay tuned

Advertisements

About Tex

Retired artillery colonel, many years in a number of positions in the Arab world. Graduate of the US Military Academy and the American University of Beirut. MA in Arab studies from the American University in Beirut along with 18 years as Middle East Seminar Director at the JFK Special Warfare Center and School, Served in Vietnam with 1st Inf Division, Assignments in Lebanon, Jordan and Egypt, plus service with Trucial Oman Scouts in the Persian Gulf. Traveled to every Arab country on the map including Iraq, Syria, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, Algeria and Morocco.
This entry was posted in Arab Military, Syria, US Foreign Policy in Middle East and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s